Monday, April 9, 2012

Demographic Transition

Demographers use the term demographic transition to explain the trends in the growth of the population.Socieities may be considered to fall into three categories in the process of modernization.The first category includes primitive social organizations in which fluctuation in mortality rate are defined and fertility is correspondingly higher.The second category characteristic of less developed countries is marked by declining mortality and increasing fertility as also high rates of increase in population.The third category is characterized by the modern society of the more developed countries in which mortality is stabilized at a relatively low average value,fertility approaches the mortality level or going even below it and a stationary and declining population.

The theory of demographic transition is a history of mortality transition from high to low death rates and a comparable transition in fertility.In pre-industrial society there were fluctuations  in population as a result of epidemics,winter and changes in the cost and supply of food.

In India the first comprehensive estimate of population gave a figure of 203 million and between 1881 and 1921 the growth rate of population was low.Since 1921 now considered as the demographic divide or transition the population showed an upward trend.Decrease in mortality rate and increase in fertility rate naturally lead to growing numbers.Now there is a need for another demographic transition with high population.

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